It's been a week since the government shutdown was averted with an hour to spare.  The pundits on both sides have declared winners and losers.  When it comes down to it, the only winners were the DC beltway politicians and numbers junkies.  The American populace was the definite loser in the end.  As some politicians are wont to say, the arch of history was not changed.  Let’s try to understand the numbers involved.  Shortly after the November 2010 election, the Republicans wanted to cut $100 Billion from the 2011 spending allocations.  Stepping back for a second, the reason for the use of the term “spending allocations” is because the Democrat led House, Senate, and White House did not pass a budget for the first time in 36 years.  So the government was running on continuing resolutions, which basically allocated monies based on 2010 levels with a slight increase for the first 5 months of the 2011 fiscal year.  Are you ready for a ride on the numerical rollercoaster?  Since there was technically only 7 months left in the 2011 fiscal year, the Republicans changed their stance to a prorated $61 Billion while the Democrats were still at $0.  Then the continuing resolutions started with the demand of $2 Billion cuts per week extended culminating in the final resolution of $38 Billion worth of cuts for the remaining months in fiscal year 2011.

Let's take a moment to understand our government’s current situation as we leave the station.  The government currently brings in about $2 Trillion [per year] to the US Treasury, while the projected spending for 2011 is around $3.7 Trillion.  Therefore, our government is on track for $1.7 Trillion of deficit spending.  Have trouble with trillions?  Those numbers equate to $5.5 Billion of revenue per day compared to $10.1 Billion of spending per day.

That means our government is spending $4.6 Billion per day more than it brings in. If the number of 40 cents on the dollar are currently being borrowed are correct, then we are borrowing $1.8 Billion every day to run our government.

If you ran your business like this, wouldn’t a shutdown, at least to stop the hemorrhaging, be an absolute must?     What would the public value of a corporation be, one that continues to operate in this reckless manner?

Hang on tight as we enjoy the numbers being spun from all the twists and turns of the rollercoaster ride.  There was $40 Billion incremental spending from the 2010 budget that President wanted but was not included.  So the Republicans were saying that $61 Billion plus the $40 Billion equated to the $100 Billion that they were originally after.  Meanwhile, the Democrats have said they have compromised with $78 Billion which is the $38 Billion + $40 Billion of requested incremental spending.  Then you have the scenario where the $38 Billion that was agreed to in the final hour, actually included the deductions from the previous CR’s bringing last week’s resolution to $26 Billion.  Then, as you start to enter the loop to loop, you hear the President caved or the Republicans caved.  When you complete the loop, you’re in essence back to where you started, there have been some analysis that state the $38 Billion may only reduce the deficit by $350 Million.

As we complete our journey and head back into the station, it’s time to put these CR numbers into perspective with our current situation.  The $38 Billion in cuts is only 1% of our current spending.  How many of you out there are experiencing 10-20% cuts in your current companies?  And if the lowly number of $350 Million is correct, that is only .01%.  In other words, only 1/100th of a penny cut per dollar spent.  So, with all the hysterics of the impending government shutdown, it becomes obvious as we disembark the rollercoaster, the politicians can run for cover with any numerical values they want to toss out and the American populace lost.

 

Links for reference:

http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerkimball/2011/04/09/pathetic/?singlepage=true

http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/10/fine-print-of-the-deal-still-under-negotiation/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/cbo-budget-deal-cuts-this-fiscal-years-deficit-by-just-353-million-not-38-billion-touted/2011/04/13/AFFJnkWD_story.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/264599/strike-one-editors

The bad news: Most of the jobs are in China

Two video reports describe what is happening. There are companion articles to the videos that fill in more details of the story. The video and text articles aren?t the same so to get the complete picture check both of them out.

Nearly $2 billion USD from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has been spent on wind power, funding the creation of enough new wind farms to power 2.4 million homes over the past year.  But the study found that nearly 80 percent of that money has gone to foreign manufacturers of wind turbines.

So Where Are the Jobs?"Most of the jobs are going overseas," said Russ Choma at the Investigative Reporting Workshop. He analyzed which foreign firms had accepted the most stimulus money. "According to our estimates, about 6,000 jobs have been created overseas, and maybe a couple hundred have been created in the U.S." New Wind Farms in the U.S. Do Not Bring Jobs, ABC News Reports, Jonathan Karl, Feb. 9, 2010    READ FULL STORY

more good info to read

[Editor note:  Please read the entire article.  But, if you only have two minutes, then spend 90 seconds starting from the top, then jump to the very end for the last few seconds.]

I am a student of history. Professionally, I have written 15 books on history that have been published in six languages, and I have studied history all my life. I have come to think there is something monumentally large afoot, and I do not believe it is simply a banking crisis, or a mortgage crisis, or a credit crisis. Yes these exist, but they are merely single facets on a very large gemstone that is only now coming into a sharper focus.

Something of historic proportions is happening. I can sense it because I know how it feels, smells, what it looks like, and how people react to it. Yes, a perfect storm may be brewing, but there is something happening within our country that has been evolving for about ten to fifteen years. The pace has dramatically quickened in the past two.

We demand and then codify into law the requirement that our banks make massive loans to people we know they can never pay back? Why?

We learned just days ago that the Federal Reserve, which has little or no real oversight by anyone, has "loaned" two trillion dollars (that is $2,000,000,000,000) over the past few months, but will not tell us to whom or why or disclose the terms. That is our money. Yours and mine. And that is three times the $700 billion we all argued about so strenuously just this past September. Who has this money? Why do they have it? Why are the terms unavailable to us? Who asked for it? Who authorized it? I thought this was a government of "we the people," who loaned our powers to our elected leaders. Apparently not.

We have spent two or more decades intentionally de-industrializing our economy.. Why?

We have intentionally dumbed down our schools, ignored our history, and no longer teach our founding documents, why we are exceptional, and why we are worth preserving. Students by and large cannot write, think critically, read, or articulate. Parents are not revolting, teachers are not picketing, school boards continue to back mediocrity.. Why?

We have now established the precedent of protesting every close election (violently in California over a proposition that is so controversial that it simply wants marriage to remain defined as between one man and one woman. Did you ever think such a thing possible just a decade ago?) We have corrupted our sacred political process by allowing unelected judges to write laws that radically change our way of life, and then mainstream Marxist groups like ACORN and others to turn our voting system into a banana republic. To what purpose?

Now our mortgage industry is collapsing, housing prices are in free fall, major industries are failing, our banking system is on the verge of collapse, social security is nearly bankrupt, as is Medicare and our entire government. Our education system is worse than a joke (I teach college and I know precisely what I am talking about) - the list is staggering in its length, breadth, and depth. It is potentially 1929 x ten...and we are at war with an enemy we cannot even name for fear of offending people of the same religion, who, in turn, cannot wait to slit the throats of your children if they have the opportunity to do so.

And finally, we have elected a man that no one really knows anything about, who has never run so much as a Dairy Queen, let alone a town as big as Warsilla , Alaska ..  All of his associations and alliances are with real radicals in their chosen fields of employment, and everything we learn about him, drip by drip, is unsettling if not downright scary (Surely you have heard him speak about his idea to create and fund a mandatory civilian defense force stronger than our military for use inside our borders? No? Oh, of course. The media would never play that for you over and over and then demand he answer it. Sarah Palin's pregnant daughter and $150,000 wardrobe are more important.)

Mr. Obama's winning platform can be boiled down to one word: CHANGE. Why?

I have never been so afraid for my country and for my children as I am now.

This man campaigned on bringing people together, something he has never, ever done in his professional life In my assessment, Obama will divide us along philosophical lines, push us apart, and then try to realign the pieces into a new and different power structure. Change is indeed coming. And when it comes, you will never see thesame nation again

And that is only the beginning..

As a serious student of history, I thought I would never come to experience what the ordinary, moral German must have felt in the mid-1930s. In those times, the "savior" was a former smooth-talking rabble-rouser from the streets, about whom the average German knew next to nothing. What they should have known was that he was associated with groups that shouted, shoved, and pushed around people with whom they disagreed; he edged his way onto the political stage through great oratory Conservative "losers" read it right now.

And there were the promises. Economic times were tough, people were losing jobs, and he was a great speaker.. And he smiled and frowned and waved a lot. And people, even newspapers, were afraid to speak out for fear that his "brown shirts" would bully and beat them into submission. Which they did - regularly. And then, he was duly elected to office, while a full-throttled economic crisis bloomed at hand - the Great Depression. Slowly, but surely he seized the controls of government power, person by person, department by department, bureaucracy by bureaucracy. The children of German citizens were at first, encouraged to join a Youth Movement in his name where they were taught exactly what to think. Later, they were required to do so. No Jews of course,

How did he get people on his side? He did it by promising jobs to the jobless, money to the money-less, and rewards for the military-industrial complex. He did it by indoctrinating the children, advocating gun control, health care for all, better wages, better jobs, and promising to re-instill pride once again in the country, across Europe , and across the world. He did it with a compliant media - did you know that? And he did this all in the name of justice and . . . CHANGE. And the people surely got what they voted for.

If you think I am exaggerating, look it up. It's all there in the history books.

So read your history books. Many people of conscience objected in 1933 and were shouted down, called names, laughed at, and ridiculed. When Winston Churchill pointed out the obvious in the late 1930s while seated in the House of Lords in England (he was not yet Prime Minister), he was booed into his seat and called a crazy troublemaker. He was right, though. And the world came to regret that he was not listened to.

Do not forget that Germany was the most educated, the most cultured country in Europe . It was full of music, art, museums, hospitals, laboratories, and universities. And yet, in less than six years (a shorter time span than just two terms of the U. S. presidency) it was rounding up its own citizens, killing others, abrogating its laws, turning children against parents, and neighbors against neighbors.. All with the best of intentions, of course. The road to Hell is paved with them.

As a practical thinker, one not overly prone to emotional decisions, I have a choice: I can either believe what the objective pieces of evidence tell me (even if they make me cringe with disgust); I can believe what history is shouting to me from across the chasm of seven decades; or I can hope I am wrong by closing my eyes, having another latte, and ignoring what is transpiring around me..

I choose to believe the evidence. No doubt some people will scoff at me, others laugh, or think I am foolish, naive, or both. To some degree, perhaps I am. But I have never been afraid to look people in the eye and tell them exactly what I believe-and why I believe it.

I pray I am wrong. I do not think I am. Perhaps the only hope is our vote in the next elections.

David Kaiser
Jamestown , Rhode Island


PLEASE -- READ THIS BEFORE YOU LEAVE...

This article was NOT written by Dr. Kaiser.   Well, it's been reported that he did author this portion of the above:

I am a student of history. Professionally, I have written 15 books on history that have been published in six languages, and I have studied history all my life.

We are publishing this here because while we are big fans of those who speak-out about the truth, we are sticklers for detail.     We have passion and respect for mathematics, which means we have great respect for accuracy.  In this case, the above contains many interesting points, but sadly it lost all credibility when it began circulating just after the election in November of 2008 with false attribution to David Kaiser.  

ARRAHow do you feel one year later?

Well as previously noted in Stimulus Transparency of Recovery.gov, only 1/3 or $258 Billion has been allocated.  Yet, all the Obama administration talking heads are out saying the stimulus package saved us from the precipice of a disastrous depression the likes we’ve never seen.  Oh by the way, don’t forget that unemployment was not to rise above 8%.  With the unemployment issues over the past year, the rise to 10%+, have created a new numerical nugget that you may not have known.  Whereas Congress couldn’t properly write the AMT to adjust for inflation, they did hide a sliding scale for unemployment into the Stimulus.  Therefore with current levels of unemployment and extended weeks of benefits, there has been roughly $80 billion added to the $787 billion package.

Politics has become a hot bed for applied statistics.  Polls are done daily and we are bombarded with results nightly.  Most polls today are tailored to address issues like health care, economy, and national security.  Statistics also play an important role in projecting winners in elections. 

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